Dundalk 2-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 30 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Dundalk 0W, Shamrock Rovers 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 0–2 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 54% versus Shamrock Rovers 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.05 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.212 / defence 1.200 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.384 / defence 0.616. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.113. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.616 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shamrock Rovers have an above-average attack strength of 1.384 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Dundalk games / 59 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 21% | Draw 23% | Shamrock Rovers 56%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Shamrock Rovers 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 40% | Shamrock Rovers 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 21% | Draw 23% | Shamrock Rovers 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Dundalk 1.05 / Shamrock Rovers 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.212 / def 1.200 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.384 / def 0.616 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Shamrock Rovers xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 June 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Dundalk 2 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 21% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (2 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 2W.
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.21) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.38x) against Dundalk's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
21%
4.67
23%
4.41
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.90
1.85
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.67
21%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
3%
29.62
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.85 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 30W 21D 21L from 72 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 48W 13D 11L across 72 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 21W 7D 8L from 36 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 20W 6D 10L across 36 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.67 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 48W 13D 11L in their last 72 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.94 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Shamrock Rovers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 42% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shamrock Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Shamrock Rovers 2-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.05 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.85 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.21 / defence 1.20 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.38 / defence 0.62, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 21% | Draw 23% | Shamrock Rovers 56%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.