Dundalk 2-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Friday 30 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dundalk's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 54% versus Shamrock Rovers 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.05 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.212 / defence 1.200 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.384 / defence 0.616. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.113. Shamrock Rovers bring a tight defence (rating 0.616, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dundalk's projected output down. Shamrock Rovers have an above-average attack rating of 1.384, which lifts their away xG to 1.85. Data: built from Dundalk's last 59 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 59.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 21% | Draw 23% | Shamrock Rovers 56%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.67 | Draw 4.41 | Shamrock Rovers 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging only 1.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dundalk 40% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 22 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 21% | Draw 23% | Shamrock Rovers 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Dundalk 1.05 / Shamrock Rovers 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.212 / def 1.200 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.384 / def 0.616 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Shamrock Rovers xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 30 June 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Dundalk 2 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 22) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 21% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.21) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.38x) against Dundalk's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 59 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
21%
4.67
23%
4.41
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.90
1.85
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.67
21%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
3%
29.62
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.85 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 30W 21D 21L from 72 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 48W 13D 11L across 72 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 21W 7D 8L from their last 36 home games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 20W 6D 10L across their last 36 away games, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.67 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 48W 13D 11L in their last 72 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.94 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers, the earliest from June 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
2
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 4, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Dundalk 3-1 Shamrock Rovers.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Shamrock Rovers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 42% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Dundalk's recent matches and 53% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shamrock Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Shamrock Rovers 2-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.05 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.85 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.21 / defence 1.20 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.38 / defence 0.62, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 21% | Draw 23% | Shamrock Rovers 56%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.