Shelbourne 2-3 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shelbourne (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shelbourne face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dundalk away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 1.80 PPG lead over Dundalk (2.10 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Shelbourne's last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Shelbourne, who have won 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Dundalk — Dundalk have 0 wins, with 2 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2024, ended Shelbourne 1–0 Dundalk — a Shelbourne win.
The head-to-head data gives Shelbourne an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 61% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 44% | Dundalk 28%). Note also that Dundalk surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Shelbourne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.73 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.046 / defence 1.145 | Dundalk attack 0.994 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.013. Dundalk's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shelbourne's projected output up. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 44 games and Dundalk's last 8.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.03 | Draw 3.74 | Dundalk 4.18. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 60% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 9 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Shelbourne 1.73 / Dundalk 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.046 / def 1.145 | Dundalk attack 0.994 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dundalk xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Dundalk kick off?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne 2 - 3 Dundalk.
Where is Shelbourne vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Dundalk part of?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 9) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 49% chance of winning, Dundalk a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shelbourne and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shelbourne vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shelbourne's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.99x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 44 games and Dundalk's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.74
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.88
1.15
Dundalk xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.15 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 36 games, going 15W 14D 7L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 0.72 PPG from 36 outings (5W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across their last 18 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 18 away games (1W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.64 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 15W 14D 7L in their last 36 games (1.64 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Dundalk away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.67 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shelbourne have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shelbourne
2
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 7, Dundalk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Dundalk 2-3 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 61%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shelbourne) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 28% of games; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and Dundalk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Shelbourne's games and 67% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shelbourne and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shelbourne's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 72% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Shelbourne 2-3 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.73 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Dundalk attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 44%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.