Shelbourne 0-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 52%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shelbourne vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division (matchday 7). Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Shelbourne have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shelbourne's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Shelbourne edge it 2 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Shelbourne 3–2 Bohemians — a Shelbourne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bohemians — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 38% | Bohemians 42%). Note also that Bohemians surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Shelbourne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.04 xG and Bohemians 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.099 / defence 1.294 | Bohemians attack 1.228 / defence 0.652. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.061. Bohemians bring a tight defence (rating 0.652, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Shelbourne's projected output down. Bohemians have an above-average attack rating of 1.228, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Shelbourne's defence rating of 1.294 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 42 games and Bohemians's last 42.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 23% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 52%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 4.29 | Draw 4.12 | Bohemians 1.91. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 60% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 23% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Shelbourne 1.04 / Bohemians 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.099 / def 1.294 | Bohemians attack 1.228 / def 0.652 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Bohemians xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Bohemians FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 0 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 23% chance of winning, Bohemians a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (1.10) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.23x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 42 games and Bohemians's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
23%
4.29
24%
4.12
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.73
1.69
Bohemians xG
4.29
23%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
4%
23.17
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Bohemians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.69 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 32W 26D 14L from 72 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 26W 18D 28L across 72 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.33 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 17W 12D 7L from their last 36 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 12W 10D 14L across their last 36 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs Bohemians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs Bohemians Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 games (1.69 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Bohemians away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.75 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bohemians in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
5
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Bohemians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 3, Bohemians have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Bohemians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Bohemians 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 56%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs Bohemians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and Bohemians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and Bohemians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Bohemians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 67% of Bohemians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shelbourne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and Bohemians finished level at 0-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.04 xG and Bohemians 1.69 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bohemians landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.10 / defence 1.29 against Bohemians attack 1.23 / defence 0.65, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 23% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 52%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 38%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.69 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.