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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 March 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derry City are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Derry City, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for St Patrick's Athl..

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Derry City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, St Patrick's Athl. show 13W 13D 10L from 36 outings in Premier Division. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 14 games this season. 18 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 8 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Derry City's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 18W 9D 9L from 36 matches. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 7-2 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards per game, 0.19 reds per game.

St Patrick's Athl. lead on clean sheets this season (18 vs 12). Derry City are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Penalty activity: St Patrick's Athl. 4/4 vs Derry City 2/2 this season.

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Derry City trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Derry City 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.85 xG and Derry City 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.379 / defence 0.768 | Derry City attack 0.937 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.061. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 St Patrick's Athl. games / 42 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 63% | Draw 22% | Derry City 15%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Derry City 6.67. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.

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