Longford Town 1-4 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Longford Town vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Longford Town welcome Bohemians to Bishopsgate Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 2 October 2021 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Longford Town have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Longford Town at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Bohemians — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bohemians — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Longford Town have won 0, Bohemians 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Jul 2021, ended Longford Town 1–1 Bohemians — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Longford Town trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 48% versus Bohemians 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Longford Town 44% | Bohemians 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.92 xG and Bohemians 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.605 / defence 1.321 | Bohemians attack 0.825 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.189. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.605 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Bohemians's defence rating of 1.365 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Longford Town's last 28 games and Bohemians's last 27.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 27% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 45%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 3.77 | Draw 3.53 | Bohemians 2.21. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Longford Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 29 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 27% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Longford Town 0.92 / Bohemians 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.605 / def 1.321 | Bohemians attack 0.825 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Bohemians xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs Bohemians FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs Bohemians kick off?
Longford Town vs Bohemians kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Longford Town 1 - 4 Bohemians.
Where is Longford Town vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Bohemians part of?
Longford Town vs Bohemians is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 29) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 27% chance of winning, Bohemians a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Longford Town and Bohemians will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Longford Town vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Longford Town's attack rating (0.60) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 28 games and Bohemians's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
27%
3.77
28%
3.53
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.22
1.30
Bohemians xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs Bohemians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.30 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Longford Town's recent record stands at 1W 8D 18L from 27 games, a 0.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 11L across 27 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bohemians by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Longford Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Longford Town have managed 1W 3D 9L from their last 13 home games — 0.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 4W 2D 7L across their last 13 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Longford Town are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.63 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
Longford Town (Home) vs Bohemians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Longford Town vs Bohemians Form FAQs
What form are Longford Town and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Longford Town have gone 1W 8D 18L in their last 27 games (0.41 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Longford Town at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Longford Town at home: 0.46 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 2 October 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Oct 2021, when Bohemians won Longford Town 1-4 Bohemians.
Longford Town's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
2
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs Bohemians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Bohemians?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 0, Bohemians have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Bohemians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 October 2021: Longford Town 1-4 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Longford Town 31%, Bohemians 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Longford Town) and 46% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Longford Town have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Longford Town vs Bohemians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Longford Town and Bohemians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Longford Town's recent matches and 54% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Longford Town and Bohemians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Longford Town's recent games and 46% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Longford Town and Bohemians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Longford Town's recent matches and 77% of Bohemians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Longford Town 1-4 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.92 xG and Bohemians 1.30 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.60 / defence 1.32 against Bohemians attack 0.82 / defence 1.36, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 27% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 45%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Longford Town 44%, Bohemians 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Longford Town's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Longford Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.