Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dundalk's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bohemians, 1.10 for Dundalk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 57% and Dundalk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 61% | Dundalk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.88 xG and Dundalk 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.298 / defence 1.231 | Dundalk attack 0.790 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.212. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Bohemians games / 30 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 54% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 24%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Dundalk 4.17. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 50% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 54% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Bohemians 1.88 / Dundalk 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.298 / def 1.231 | Dundalk attack 0.790 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Dundalk xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Dundalk kick off?
Bohemians vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Bohemians vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Dundalk part of?
Bohemians vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 54% chance of winning, Dundalk a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.79x) against Bohemians's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 28/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.45
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.06
1.18
Dundalk xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
27.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.18 for Dundalk, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians come into this having played 28 games, going 12W 5D 11L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Bohemians against 1.32 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.29 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 12W 5D 11L in their last 28 games (1.46 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Dundalk away?
Bohemians's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.71 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
3
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Dundalk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 57%, Dundalk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Bohemians and 50% for Dundalk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bohemians's games and 64% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Bohemians's matches and 50% of Dundalk's.
Do Bohemians and Dundalk tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 31, as Bohemians and Dundalk drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.88 xG and Dundalk 1.18 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.30 / defence 1.23 against Dundalk attack 0.79 / defence 1.31, drawn from 28/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 54% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 24%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 61%, Dundalk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.46 PPG, Dundalk 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.