Dundalk 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Bohemians in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 69% and Bohemians 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 54% | Bohemians 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.60 xG and Bohemians 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.078 / defence 1.360 | Bohemians attack 0.855 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.190. Bohemians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Dundalk games / 26 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 33%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 80% | Bohemians 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Dundalk 1.60 / Bohemians 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.078 / def 1.360 | Bohemians attack 0.855 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Bohemians xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.08) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.85x) against Dundalk's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.13
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.99
1.38
Bohemians xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.38 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 8W 6D 12L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians's form line: 11W 5D 10L from 26 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Dundalk against 1.46 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 4W 2D 6L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.65 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 11W 5D 10L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Bohemians away?
Dundalk's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.42 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bohemians in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
3
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 75%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 42% (Bohemians).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dundalk's games and 50% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Bohemians tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Bohemians 2-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.60 xG and Bohemians 1.38 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.08 / defence 1.36 against Bohemians attack 0.85 / defence 1.33, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 43% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 33%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 54%, Bohemians 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.15 PPG, Bohemians 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.