Sligo Rovers 1-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 49%, yet in-form Waterford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sligo Rovers vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 29 as Sligo Rovers welcome Waterford to The Showgrounds. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Sligo Rovers have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 5W 1D 4L at The Showgrounds — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Waterford — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Waterford have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Waterford's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sligo Rovers's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 43% versus Waterford 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 32% | Waterford 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.38 xG and Waterford 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.951 / defence 0.927 | Waterford attack 0.733 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.232. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Sligo Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Sligo Rovers games / 28 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 49% | Draw 28% | Waterford 23%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Waterford 4.35. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waterford (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Waterford 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 49% | Draw 28% | Waterford 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.38 / Waterford 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.951 / def 0.927 | Waterford attack 0.733 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Waterford xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Waterford kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Waterford part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 49% chance of winning, Waterford a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Waterford in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Waterford (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sligo Rovers's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.61
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.21
0.84
Waterford xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.84 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 6D 9L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Waterford sit at 1.14 PPG from 28 outings (10W 2D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Sligo Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Waterford have taken 1.07 points per game from 14 outings (5W 0D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 0.89 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Waterford in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 13W 6D 9L in their last 28 games (1.61 PPG), while Waterford have gone 10W 2D 16L in their last 28 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Waterford away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.50 PPG; Waterford away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Waterford in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Sligo Rovers won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
4
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 5, Waterford have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Waterford 4-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Waterford?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 43%, Waterford 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 64% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Waterford in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 43% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 64% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Waterford tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Waterford in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers and Waterford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 29, as Sligo Rovers and Waterford drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.38 xG and Waterford 0.84 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Waterford attack 0.73 / defence 1.29, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 49% | Draw 28% | Waterford 23%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 32%, Waterford 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.