Shelbourne 1-4 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 18 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bohemians's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.68 xG and Bohemians 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.671 / defence 1.400 | Bohemians attack 0.881 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.177. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Shelbourne games / 46 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 16% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 54%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 6.25 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 1.85. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 16% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Shelbourne 0.68 / Bohemians 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.671 / def 1.400 | Bohemians attack 0.881 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bohemians xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 1 - 4 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 16% chance of winning, Bohemians a 54% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Bohemians away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.67) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.88x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 10/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
16%
6.34
30%
3.31
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.13
1.45
Bohemians xG
6.34
16%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
51%
1.98
Win to Nil
4%
27.10
27%
3.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.45 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Shelbourne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shelbourne 1-4 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.68 xG and Bohemians 1.45 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.67 / defence 1.40 against Bohemians attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 10/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 16% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 54%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.