Dundalk 4-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Drogheda United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Drogheda United (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Drogheda United have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dundalk. A 1.00 PPG lead over Drogheda United (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 64% versus Drogheda United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Drogheda United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.86 xG and Drogheda United 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.210 / defence 0.767 | Drogheda United attack 1.080 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.232. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Dundalk games / 48 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 56% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 20%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Drogheda United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 60% | Drogheda United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 56% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Dundalk 1.86 / Drogheda United 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.210 / def 0.767 | Drogheda United attack 1.080 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Drogheda United xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Drogheda United kick off?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Dundalk 4 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Dundalk vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Drogheda United part of?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 56% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dundalk and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.21) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (1.08x) against Dundalk's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.09
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.88
1.02
Drogheda United xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
32.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.02 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 13W 9D 14L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Drogheda United's form line: 12W 8D 16L from 36 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Dundalk against 1.22 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (9W 2D 7L).
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 5W 4D 9L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Drogheda United away?
Dundalk's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.61 PPG; Drogheda United away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
4
Draws
2
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 4, Drogheda United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 67%, Drogheda United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 56% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Drogheda United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Drogheda United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dundalk's games and 50% of Drogheda United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Dundalk's matches and 56% of Drogheda United's.
Do Dundalk and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Drogheda United 4-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.86 xG and Drogheda United 1.02 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.21 / defence 0.77 against Drogheda United attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 56% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 20%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Drogheda United 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.33 PPG, Drogheda United 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.