Dundalk 1-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 55%, yet in-form Sligo Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 7). Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dundalk at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sligo Rovers's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sligo Rovers away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sligo Rovers are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Dundalk edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Dundalk 1–2 Sligo Rovers — a Sligo Rovers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Sligo Rovers 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Sligo Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.57 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.170 / defence 0.978 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.797 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.061. Sligo Rovers's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Dundalk's last 6 games and Sligo Rovers's last 42.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 55% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 20%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.82 | Draw 3.93 | Sligo Rovers 5.08. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sligo Rovers (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dundalk 20% (last 10 home games) | Sligo Rovers 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 55% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Dundalk 1.57 / Sligo Rovers 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.170 / def 0.978 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.797 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sligo Rovers xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 1 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 55% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.80x) against Dundalk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 6 games and Sligo Rovers's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.93
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.40
0.83
Sligo Rovers xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
4%
24.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.83 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 5W 11D 20L from 36 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 17L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sligo Rovers by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 4W 5D 9L from their last 18 home games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 6W 2D 10L across their last 18 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Sligo Rovers's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 0.94 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won Dundalk 0-5 Sligo Rovers on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
3
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 4, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Sligo Rovers 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Dundalk) and 50% (Sligo Rovers) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Dundalk) and 61% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk have failed to score in 72% of games; Sligo Rovers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Sligo Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dundalk's recent games and 61% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 44% of Dundalk's recent matches and 78% of Sligo Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Sligo Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Sligo Rovers 1-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.57 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.83 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 6/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 55% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 20%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 28%, Sligo Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.