Dundalk 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 5W 3D 2L at Oriel Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Dundalk, 1.40 for Shelbourne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dundalk lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 51% versus Shelbourne 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 52% | Shelbourne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.05 xG and Shelbourne 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.211 / defence 1.061 | Shelbourne attack 1.093 / defence 0.586. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.153. Shelbourne's defence strength of 0.586 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Dundalk games / 61 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 29% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 43%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Shelbourne 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 80% | Shelbourne 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 29% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Dundalk 1.05 / Shelbourne 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.211 / def 1.061 | Shelbourne attack 1.093 / def 0.586 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shelbourne xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shelbourne kick off?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Dundalk 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Dundalk vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shelbourne part of?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 29% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dundalk and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Record (1 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 1 | Shelbourne 0W.
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Shelbourne (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.21x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 0.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.09x) against Dundalk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
29%
3.39
27%
3.65
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.39
1.34
Shelbourne xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.34 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 28W 18D 15L from 61 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 20L across 61 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Dundalk against 1.30 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 18W 9D 3L from 30 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.11 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 28W 18D 15L in their last 61 games (1.67 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 19W 22D 20L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shelbourne away?
Dundalk's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.10 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
3
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Shelbourne have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 60%, Shelbourne 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dundalk) and 37% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Shelbourne in 40%; Shelbourne in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Dundalk's recent matches and 40% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dundalk's recent games and 37% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Shelbourne finished level at 1-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.05 xG and Shelbourne 1.34 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Shelbourne attack 1.09 / defence 0.59, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 29% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 43%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 52%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.67 PPG, Shelbourne 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.