Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Cork City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 74% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shamrock Rovers face Cork City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cork City travel to Tallaght Stadium to take on Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shamrock Rovers stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shamrock Rovers's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cork City — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Cork City have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shamrock Rovers 1.70 PPG, Cork City 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 1 for Cork City and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2023, ended Shamrock Rovers 0–1 Cork City — a Cork City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Cork City in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 40% versus Cork City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 52% | Cork City 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.41 xG and Cork City 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.232 / defence 0.924 | Cork City attack 0.717 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.148. Cork City's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Cork City's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 61 games and Cork City's last 25.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Cork City 10%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.36 | Draw 6.06 | Cork City 10.20. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (74%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shamrock Rovers's last 10 home games and Cork City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shamrock Rovers 50% (last 10 home games) | Cork City 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 26 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Cork City 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Shamrock Rovers 2.41 / Cork City 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.232 / def 0.924 | Cork City attack 0.717 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cork City xG
49%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City FAQs
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 1 Cork City.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 26) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 74% chance of winning, Cork City a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Cork City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Cork City's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.41. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shamrock Rovers's last 61 games and Cork City's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
74%
1.36
16%
6.06
10%
10.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
3.17
0.76
Cork City xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.06
16%
Draw
10.20
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
9%
11.09
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
1%
113.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.76 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shamrock Rovers's recent record stands at 13W 8D 4L from 25 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Cork City, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 14L across 25 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shamrock Rovers have managed 7W 3D 2L from their last 12 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cork City's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across their last 12 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cork City's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.04 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Cork City
Blended
Shamrock Rovers (Home) vs Cork City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Cork City
Blended
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City Form FAQs
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 13W 8D 4L in their last 25 games (1.88 PPG), while Cork City have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Cork City away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.00 PPG; Cork City away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Cork City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Cork City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 19 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Apr 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won Shamrock Rovers 4-1 Cork City.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Shamrock Rovers
4
Draws
1
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, Cork City have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Cork City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2025: Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 58%, Cork City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Shamrock Rovers and 58% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cork City in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shamrock Rovers and Cork City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 58% of Cork City's.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Cork City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 83% of Cork City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Cork City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Cork City 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.41 xG and Cork City 0.76 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.23 / defence 0.92 against Cork City attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 61/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Cork City 10%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 52%, Cork City 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Cork City's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.