Dundalk 2-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 42%, yet in-form Derry City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Derry City hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Derry City have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Derry City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Derry City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.37 xG and Derry City 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.084 / defence 0.989 | Derry City attack 0.852 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.252. Data: 18 Dundalk games / 55 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 42% | Draw 30% | Derry City 27%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Derry City 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 20% | Derry City 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 42% | Draw 30% | Derry City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Dundalk 1.37 / Derry City 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.084 / def 0.989 | Derry City attack 0.852 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Derry City xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 29 May 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 2 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 42% chance of winning, Derry City a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
Record (9 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 5 | Derry City 4W.
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in?
Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.08) and Derry City's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.85x) against Dundalk's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 18/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.29
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.43
1.05
Derry City xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.05 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Dundalk have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 5W 11D 20L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Derry City's form line: 18W 9D 9L from 36 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dundalk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 9W 3D 6L from 18 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.44 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Derry City have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 0.94 PPG; Derry City away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Derry City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
5
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Dundalk) and 50% (Derry City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Dundalk and 39% for Derry City.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk have failed to score in 72% of games; Derry City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dundalk's recent games and 39% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Derry City tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Derry City in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Derry City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Derry City 2-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.37 xG and Derry City 1.05 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Derry City attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 18/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 42% | Draw 30% | Derry City 27%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 28%, Derry City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.