Poisson model rates Bohemians at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 29 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 4W 4D 2L at Showgrounds — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.20 for Bohemians. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sligo Rovers, 4 for Bohemians and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Sligo Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Season Stats
The hosts have accumulated 11W 8D 17L from their 36 Premier Division appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 36 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.
Bohemians have played 36 games this season, recording 16W 6D 14L. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.1 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 36 games (19%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.
Bohemians have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.10 per game versus 1.50 for the hosts. Bohemians lead on clean sheets this season (13 vs 7). Penalty activity: Sligo Rovers 3/3 vs Bohemians 5/5 this season.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 46% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 50% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.96 xG and Bohemians 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.785 / defence 1.057 | Bohemians attack 1.235 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.252. Sligo Rovers's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Sligo Rovers games / 55 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 21% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 52%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1.92. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sligo Rovers 40% | Bohemians 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Managers: Sligo Rovers (J. Russell) | Bohemians (A. Reynolds) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Sligo Rovers 3W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 4W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sligo Rovers 8 – 13 Bohemians • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Sligo Rovers 33% / Draw 22% / Bohemians 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 21% / draw 28% / away 52% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.60 (48% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 51% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W • Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W • Sligo Rovers home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | CS 4 • Bohemians away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sligo Rovers 1.50 PPG vs Bohemians 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Sligo Rovers): Poisson xG of 0.96 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson projects 1.63 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.60 (48% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 51% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 21% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.96 / Bohemians 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.785 / def 1.057 | Bohemians attack 1.235 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Bohemians xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 29 May 2026 at Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 3 Bohemians.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 21% chance of winning, Bohemians a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
• Record (9 meetings): Sligo Rovers 3W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 4W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sligo Rovers 8 – 13 Bohemians • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Sligo Rovers 33% / Draw 22% / Bohemians 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 21% / draw 28% / away 52% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.60 (48% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 51% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in?
• Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W • Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W • Sligo Rovers home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | CS 4 • Bohemians away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sligo Rovers 1.50 PPG vs Bohemians 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Sligo Rovers): Poisson xG of 0.96 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson projects 1.63 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.60 (48% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 51% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture