Drogheda United 3-3 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 19 as Drogheda United welcome Waterford to Weavers Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weavers Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.
Waterford — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Waterford away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Drogheda United at 1.00 PPG versus Waterford's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Drogheda United, 3 for Waterford and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Waterford winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Drogheda United in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Waterford in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 53% versus Waterford 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 48% | Waterford 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.72 xG and Waterford 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.817 / defence 0.893 | Waterford attack 0.806 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.252. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Drogheda United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Drogheda United games / 54 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 55% | Draw 27% | Waterford 18%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Waterford 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Drogheda United (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 40% | Waterford 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 55% | Draw 27% | Waterford 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Drogheda United 1.72 / Waterford 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.817 / def 0.893 | Waterford attack 0.806 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Waterford xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Waterford kick off?
Drogheda United vs Waterford kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 29 May 2026 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Drogheda United 3 - 3 Waterford.
Where is Drogheda United vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Waterford part of?
Drogheda United vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 55% chance of winning, Waterford a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Drogheda United and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Waterford?
Record (9 meetings): Drogheda United 3W | Draws 3 | Waterford 3W.
What form are Drogheda United and Waterford in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Drogheda United's attack rating (0.82) and Waterford's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Drogheda United's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.75
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.62
0.90
Waterford xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
31.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.90 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 20W 28D 25L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 25W 12D 36L from 73 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Drogheda United on 1.21 PPG, Waterford on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.56 PPG from 36 outings (14W 14D 8L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 11W 5D 20L from 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Drogheda United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Drogheda United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.18 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Waterford in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 20W 28D 25L in their last 73 games (1.21 PPG), while Waterford have gone 25W 12D 36L in their last 73 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Waterford away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.56 PPG; Waterford away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Waterford in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Drogheda United's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Drogheda United
4
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 3, Waterford have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Drogheda United 3-3 Waterford.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 53%, Waterford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Drogheda United) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Waterford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 47% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Drogheda United's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Waterford tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Waterford in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Drogheda United and Waterford share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United and Waterford finished level at 3-3 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.72 xG and Waterford 0.90 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Drogheda United beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waterford outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Waterford attack 0.81 / defence 1.48, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 55% | Draw 27% | Waterford 18%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 48%, Waterford 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.21 PPG, Waterford 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.