Drogheda United 0-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Drogheda United — this Drogheda United vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Weavers Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Drogheda United, 1.20 for Bohemians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Drogheda United, who have won 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Bohemians — Bohemians have 1 win, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Drogheda United 1–4 Bohemians — a Bohemians win.
The head-to-head data gives Drogheda United an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 53% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 47% | Bohemians 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Drogheda United surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Bohemians have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bohemians surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Drogheda United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 0.69 xG and Bohemians 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.841 / defence 0.889 | Bohemians attack 1.079 / defence 0.622. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.013. Bohemians bring a tight defence (rating 0.622, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Drogheda United's projected output down. Data: built from Drogheda United's last 44 games and Bohemians's last 44.
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 24% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 39%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 4.26 | Draw 2.67 | Bohemians 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Drogheda United's lower xG of 0.69 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Drogheda United's last 10 home games and Bohemians's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Drogheda United 40% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 9 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 24% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% (Under 77%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Drogheda United 0.69 / Bohemians 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.841 / def 0.889 | Bohemians attack 1.079 / def 0.622 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bohemians xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Drogheda United vs Bohemians FAQs
What time does Drogheda United vs Bohemians kick off?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Drogheda United 0 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Drogheda United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Bohemians part of?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 9) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 24% chance of winning, Bohemians a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Drogheda United and Bohemians will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Drogheda United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (77%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.08x) against Drogheda United's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Drogheda United's last 44 games and Bohemians's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
24%
4.26
37%
2.67
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
1.66
0.97
Bohemians xG
4.26
24%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 18.4 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Drogheda United vs Bohemians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.97 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 20W 28D 24L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.33 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 36 home games (14W 14D 8L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 12W 10D 14L from their last 36 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
Drogheda United (Home) vs Bohemians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Drogheda United
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Drogheda United vs Bohemians Form FAQs
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 20W 28D 24L in their last 72 games (1.22 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Bohemians away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.56 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Bohemians have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won Drogheda United 1-4 Bohemians on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Drogheda United vs Bohemians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Drogheda United have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Bohemians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Bohemians 2-1 Drogheda United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 53%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Drogheda United) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Drogheda United vs Bohemians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Drogheda United and Bohemians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Drogheda United and Bohemians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Drogheda United's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Bohemians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 67% of Bohemians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Drogheda United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 9, as Drogheda United and Bohemians drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.69 xG and Bohemians 0.97 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Bohemians attack 1.08 / defence 0.62, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 24% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 39%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 47%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.22 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.