Derry City 1-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers meet at Celtic Park in Premier Division (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Derry City's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Derry City's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Derry City's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Derry City's games and 70% of Shamrock Rovers's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers have the stronger record — 4 wins to Derry City's 1, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2026, ended Derry City 0–1 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Shamrock Rovers 50%). Note also that Shamrock Rovers surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Derry City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.28 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.069 / defence 1.146 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.018 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.199. Data: built from Derry City's last 48 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 48.
Result probabilities: Derry City 32% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 38%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 3.10 | Draw 3.33 | Shamrock Rovers 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), but Derry City carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Shamrock Rovers 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derry City 70% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 13 | Venue: Celtic Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 32% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Derry City 1.28 / Shamrock Rovers 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.069 / def 1.146 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.018 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Shamrock Rovers xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at Celtic Park.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Derry City 1 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Celtic Park.
What competition is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 13) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 32% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Derry City and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.02x) against Derry City's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Derry City's last 48 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
32%
3.10
30%
3.33
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.68
1.40
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Derry City and 1.40 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 32W 22D 18L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 36W 19D 17L from 72 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Derry City against 1.76 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 36 home games (18W 12D 6L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 10D 11L from their last 36 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Derry City (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derry City
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Derry City
4
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Derry City have won 2, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Derry City 3-3 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 89% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 64%, Shamrock Rovers 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 50% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derry City and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Derry City's games and 64% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Derry City's recent matches and 61% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 at Celtic Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.28 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 32% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 38%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.64 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.