UCD 0-2 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates UCD at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this UCD vs Cork City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 34 as UCD welcome Cork City to UCD Bowl. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, UCD have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, UCD have posted 1W 1D 8L at UCD Bowl — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cork City stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cork City away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — UCD at 0.20 PPG versus Cork City's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, UCD have won 1, Cork City 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
UCD trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 59% of games.
Cork City trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 38% versus Cork City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 66% | Cork City 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.46 xG and Cork City 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.660 / defence 1.529 | Cork City attack 0.787 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 0.996. UCD's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing UCD's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 UCD games / 32 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 42% | Draw 27% | Cork City 30%. Fair-value odds: UCD 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Cork City 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is UCD at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on UCD offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: UCD 40% | Cork City 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 42% | Draw 27% | Cork City 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG UCD 1.46 / Cork City 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.660 / def 1.529 | Cork City attack 0.787 / def 1.502 | league avg home 1.470 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: UCD (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cork City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Cork City kick off?
UCD vs Cork City kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Cork City?
UCD 0 - 2 Cork City.
Where is UCD vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Cork City part of?
UCD vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 42% chance of winning, Cork City a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making UCD the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both UCD and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Cork City?
Record (3 meetings): UCD 1W | Draws 1 | Cork City 1W.
What form are UCD and Cork City in?
UCD (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Cork City (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
UCD's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Cork City's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
UCD Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.65
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
UCD xG
Total xG
2.66
1.20
Cork City xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are UCD and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for UCD and 1.20 for Cork City, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Cork City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
UCD's recent record stands at 2W 4D 26L from 32 games, a 0.31 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Cork City, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 19L across 32 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cork City by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, UCD have managed 2W 3D 11L from 16 games — 0.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cork City's away record stands at 1W 3D 12L across 16 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cork City's season.
The Goals Picture
UCD are averaging 0.47 goals scored and 2.66 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.03 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Cork City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Cork City in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 2W 4D 26L in their last 32 games (0.31 PPG), while Cork City have gone 7W 6D 19L in their last 32 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Cork City away?
UCD's home record (0.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.56 PPG; Cork City away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between UCD and Cork City runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2023, when Cork City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
UCD's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
UCD
1
Draws
2
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Cork City?
From 4 meetings on record, UCD have won 1, Cork City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when UCD 0-2 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Cork City?
Cork City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 38%, Cork City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for UCD and 69% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 56% of games; Cork City in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Cork City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of UCD's recent matches and 50% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of UCD's matches and 69% of Cork City's.
Do UCD and Cork City tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cork City in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cork City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City beat UCD 0-2 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.46 xG and Cork City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. UCD fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cork City outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.66 / defence 1.53 against Cork City attack 0.79 / defence 1.50, drawn from 69/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 42% | Draw 27% | Cork City 30%, with UCD to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cork City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 66%, Cork City 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cork City's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cork City arrived the stronger side — 0.84 PPG against 0.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.