Drogheda United 1-4 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Drogheda United at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Weavers Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weavers Park. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Drogheda United, 0.90 for Bohemians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Drogheda United, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Bohemians — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Drogheda United winning.
The historical record gives Drogheda United a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 52% versus Bohemians 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 46% | Bohemians 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.12 xG and Bohemians 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.860 / defence 0.838 | Bohemians attack 0.930 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 0.968. Data: 71 Drogheda United games / 71 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 43% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 24%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Bohemians 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | Bohemians 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 43% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Drogheda United 1.12 / Bohemians 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.860 / def 0.838 | Bohemians attack 0.930 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.335 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Bohemians xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Bohemians kick off?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Drogheda United 1 - 4 Bohemians.
Where is Drogheda United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Bohemians part of?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Drogheda United and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
Record (6 meetings): Drogheda United 4W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Bohemians (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.93x) against Drogheda United's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
43%
2.32
33%
3.02
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
1.87
0.75
Bohemians xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.75 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 28D 23L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 25W 18D 28L from 71 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.31 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.60 PPG from 35 outings (14W 14D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 11W 10D 14L from 35 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.17 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 20W 28D 23L in their last 71 games (1.24 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 25W 18D 28L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Bohemians away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.60 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bohemians in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 51%, Bohemians 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Drogheda United) and 40% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Drogheda United have failed to score in 26% of games; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 46% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Drogheda United's recent games and 40% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Bohemians tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Drogheda United 1-4 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.12 xG and Bohemians 0.75 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 0.75 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against Bohemians attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 43% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 24%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 46%, Bohemians 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.24 PPG, Bohemians 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.