St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park in Premier Division (matchday 21). Kick-off is Friday 23 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shelbourne — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Shelbourne have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 47% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 56% | Shelbourne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.22 xG and Shelbourne 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.293 / defence 0.847 | Shelbourne attack 0.917 / defence 0.675. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.150. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack rating of 1.293 — their 1.22 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shelbourne bring a tight defence (rating 0.675, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output down. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 57 games and Shelbourne's last 56.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 27%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.28 | Draw 3.42 | Shelbourne 3.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 50% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 21 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.22 / Shelbourne 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.293 / def 0.847 | Shelbourne attack 0.917 / def 0.675 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Shelbourne xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 23 June 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 21) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 44% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 57 games and Shelbourne's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.42
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.12
0.89
Shelbourne xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.89 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 18W 7D 11L from 36 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 15L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shelbourne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 10W 3D 5L from their last 18 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across their last 18 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 7D 11L in their last 36 games (1.69 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shelbourne away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.11 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shelbourne have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Shelbourne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 39% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shelbourne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 50% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 39% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 50% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Shelbourne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shelbourne 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.22 xG and Shelbourne 0.89 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.29 / defence 0.85 against Shelbourne attack 0.92 / defence 0.68, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 27%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 56%, Shelbourne 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.