Drogheda United 1-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Drogheda United face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Dundalk meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Drogheda United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Drogheda United have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Drogheda United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 49% versus Dundalk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 40% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.01 xG and Dundalk 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.784 / defence 1.016 | Dundalk attack 0.862 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.150. Drogheda United's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Drogheda United's last 56 games and Dundalk's last 57.
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 35% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 35%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.89 | Draw 3.25 | Dundalk 2.88. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 31%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Drogheda United 35% and Dundalk 35%, with the draw at 31%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Drogheda United's last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Drogheda United 40% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 21 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 June 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 35% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Drogheda United 1.01 / Dundalk 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.784 / def 1.016 | Dundalk attack 0.862 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Drogheda United and Dundalk level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Dundalk xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Drogheda United vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Drogheda United vs Dundalk kick off?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 23 June 2023 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United 1 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Drogheda United vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Dundalk part of?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 21) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 35% chance of winning, Dundalk a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Drogheda United and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Drogheda United vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 0.78x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.86x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Drogheda United's last 56 games and Dundalk's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
35%
2.89
31%
3.25
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.01
1.01
Dundalk xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Drogheda United vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.01 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 21W 19D 32L from 72 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 30W 21D 21L across 72 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 14W 10D 12L from their last 36 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 9W 14D 13L across their last 36 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.31 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
Drogheda United (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Drogheda United
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Drogheda United vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 21W 19D 32L in their last 72 games (1.14 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Dundalk away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.44 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Dundalk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Drogheda United
4
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Drogheda United vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Drogheda United have won 2, Dundalk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Drogheda United 2-3 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 47%, Dundalk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Drogheda United and 36% for Dundalk.
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 33% of games; Dundalk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Drogheda United vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Drogheda United and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Drogheda United and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Drogheda United's recent games and 36% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 69% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Drogheda United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Drogheda United 1-2 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.01 xG and Dundalk 1.01 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Dundalk attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 35% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 35%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Dundalk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 40%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.