Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bohemians have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dundalk's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Bohemians's favour (1.20 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Bohemians, 2 for Dundalk and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Bohemians 2–0 Dundalk — a Bohemians win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 42% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 47% | Dundalk 28%). Note also that Dundalk surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Bohemians recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.92 xG and Dundalk 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.074 / defence 0.922 | Dundalk attack 0.991 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.037. Dundalk's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians's last 43 games and Dundalk's last 7.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 59% | Draw 25% | Dundalk 17%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.70 | Draw 4.07 | Dundalk 5.99. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 40% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 8 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 59% | Draw 25% | Dundalk 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Bohemians 1.92 / Dundalk 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.074 / def 0.922 | Dundalk attack 0.991 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Dundalk xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Dundalk kick off?
Bohemians vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 20 March 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Bohemians vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Dundalk part of?
Bohemians vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 8) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 59% chance of winning, Dundalk a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bohemians and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.99x) against Bohemians's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 43 games and Dundalk's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.07
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.86
0.95
Dundalk xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
2%
40.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.95 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 6D 14L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 0.72 PPG from 36 outings (5W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians's home form reads 10W 2D 6L across their last 18 home games, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 18 away games (1W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.64 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Dundalk away?
Bohemians's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.78 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dundalk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bohemians and Dundalk, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 2 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 October 2026: Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 39%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bohemians) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bohemians's recent matches and 67% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bohemians's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Bohemians's recent matches and 72% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and Dundalk finished level at 1-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.92 xG and Dundalk 0.95 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Dundalk attack 0.99 / defence 1.32, drawn from 43/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 59% | Draw 25% | Dundalk 17%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.