Volos NFC 0-3 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours Levadiakos — this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadium in Super League 1 (Conference League Group - 4). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Volos NFC have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Levadiakos stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 0.80 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Levadiakos have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Volos NFC.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2026, ended Volos NFC 2–5 Levadiakos — a Levadiakos win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Levadiakos have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Levadiakos trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 48% versus Levadiakos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | Levadiakos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.51 xG and Levadiakos 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.935 / defence 1.118 | Levadiakos attack 1.056 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Levadiakos's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Volos NFC's projected output up. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 52 games and Levadiakos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 30%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.42 | Draw 3.45 | Levadiakos 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Volos NFC's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 70% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 4 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Volos NFC 1.51 / Levadiakos 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.935 / def 1.118 | Levadiakos attack 1.056 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Levadiakos xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Volos NFC vs Levadiakos FAQs
What time does Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Volos NFC 0 - 3 Levadiakos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos part of?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos is a Super League 1 fixture (Conference League Group - 4) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 41% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Volos NFC and Levadiakos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Volos NFC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Volos NFC's last 52 games and Levadiakos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.45
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.26
Levadiakos xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Volos NFC vs Levadiakos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.26 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 20W 11D 34L from 65 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 26W 18D 21L across 65 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.09 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 9W 9D 14L from their last 32 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 11W 10D 11L across their last 32 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.65 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Levadiakos
Current Season
Volos NFC (Home) vs Levadiakos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Volos NFC
Current Season
Levadiakos
Current Season
❓ Volos NFC vs Levadiakos Form FAQs
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 20W 11D 34L in their last 65 games (1.09 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 26W 18D 21L in their last 65 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.12 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won Levadiakos 0-3 Volos NFC.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
1
Draws
7
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Volos NFC vs Levadiakos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Volos NFC have won 2, Levadiakos have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Levadiakos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Levadiakos 0-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 53% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, Levadiakos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Volos NFC) and 53% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 34% of games; Levadiakos in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Volos NFC vs Levadiakos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Volos NFC and Levadiakos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 56% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Volos NFC and Levadiakos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Volos NFC's recent games and 53% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Levadiakos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 81% of Levadiakos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Volos NFC 0-3 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Conference League Group - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.51 xG and Levadiakos 1.26 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Levadiakos outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Levadiakos attack 1.06 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 30%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Levadiakos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.09 PPG, Levadiakos 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.