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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Conference League Group - 5 sees OFI travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 1.10 PPG, OFI 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for OFI and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with OFI winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Levadiakos trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

OFI trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 58% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 58% | OFI 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.04 xG and OFI 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.256 / defence 1.066 | OFI attack 1.082 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Levadiakos games / 52 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 55% | Draw 24% | OFI 21%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | OFI 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 70% | OFI 70% BTTS from recent games.

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