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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Conference League Group - 4 sees OFI travel to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

OFI — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

OFI away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 PPG, OFI 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 5 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).

OFI in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 49% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 31% | OFI 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 xG and OFI 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.728 / defence 0.920 | OFI attack 1.083 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Aris Thessalonikis's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 37% | Draw 33% | OFI 30%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | OFI 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | OFI 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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