PAS Giannina 2-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.

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Match Analysis

PAS Giannina host Apollon Smirnis at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 30 January 2022 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, PAS Giannina stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, PAS Giannina have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Apollon Smirnis — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Apollon Smirnis's away record over their last 8 away games: 0W 1D 7L (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game.

On current form, PAS Giannina have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Apollon Smirnis and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2021, ended PAS Giannina 0–1 Apollon Smirnis — a Apollon Smirnis win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Apollon Smirnis in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 65% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 47% versus Apollon Smirnis 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 35% | Apollon Smirnis 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.44 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.963 / defence 1.223 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.532 / defence 1.550. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 1.152. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.550 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAS Giannina's projected output up. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.532 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. PAS Giannina's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Apollon Smirnis's projected output up. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 19 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 17.

Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 54% | Draw 27% | Apollon Smirnis 19%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 1.87 | Draw 3.71 | Apollon Smirnis 5.13. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, PAS Giannina are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PAS Giannina 60% (last 10 home games) | Apollon Smirnis 38% (last 8 away games).

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