Asteras Tripolis 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 2 February 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAS Giannina have posted 3W 3D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Asteras Tripolis carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Asteras Tripolis's 20% and PAS Giannina's 22% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 0 for PAS Giannina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 32% versus PAS Giannina 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 21% | PAS Giannina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.99 xG and PAS Giannina 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.957 / defence 0.798 | PAS Giannina attack 0.793 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.160. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 19 Asteras Tripolis games / 20 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 26%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | PAS Giannina 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — PAS Giannina's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 20% | PAS Giannina 22% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.99 / PAS Giannina 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.957 / def 0.798 | PAS Giannina attack 0.793 / def 1.095 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.73
PAS Giannina xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Asteras Tripolis 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 40% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina?
Record (1 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 1 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.96x the league average against PAS Giannina's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
40%
2.47
33%
3.00
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.72
0.73
PAS Giannina xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 13.1 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 13.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.73 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 19 games, going 8W 5D 6L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.53 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 6W 1D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.21 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; PAS Giannina in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 games (1.53 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or PAS Giannina away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 2.38 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
3
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, PAS Giannina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Asteras Tripolis 25% BTTS, PAS Giannina 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Asteras Tripolis and 12% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 38%; PAS Giannina in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 25% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 12% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.99 xG and PAS Giannina 0.73 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.96 / defence 0.80 against PAS Giannina attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 26%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 21%, PAS Giannina 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.53 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.