Apollon Smirnis 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Apollon Smirnis and PAOK meet at Stadio Georgios Kamaras in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Apollon Smirnis have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Apollon Smirnis's home record at Stadio Georgios Kamaras: 1W 5D 3L from 9 Super League 1 appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Kamaras. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAOK have posted 6W 0D 3L from 9 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.22 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Apollon Smirnis, 1 for PAOK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Apollon Smirnis — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 28% versus PAOK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 39% | PAOK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.67 xG and PAOK 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.603 / defence 1.072 | PAOK attack 1.380 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 0.991 / away 1.157. Apollon Smirnis's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Apollon Smirnis games / 19 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 14% | Draw 23% | PAOK 63%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | PAOK 1.59. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Apollon Smirnis 22% | PAOK 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 14% | Draw 23% | PAOK 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 40% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.67 / PAOK 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.603 / def 1.072 | PAOK attack 1.380 / def 1.113 | league avg home 0.991 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: PAOK (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
1.71
PAOK xG
40%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 14% chance of winning, PAOK a 63% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and PAOK?
Record (1 meetings): Apollon Smirnis 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 1W.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and PAOK in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against PAOK's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.38x) against Apollon Smirnis's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.6%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
14%
7.10
23%
4.30
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
2.38
1.71
PAOK xG
7.10
14%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
51%
1.94
Win to Nil
3%
39.28
32%
3.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 15.9 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 1.71 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Apollon Smirnis's recent record stands at 1W 6D 11L from 18 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 2D 4L across 18 games — 2.11 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Apollon Smirnis have managed 1W 5D 3L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 6W 0D 3L across 9 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.39 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.28 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and PAOK in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 6D 11L in their last 18 games (0.50 PPG), while PAOK have gone 12W 2D 4L in their last 18 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 0.89 PPG; PAOK away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAOK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
0
Draws
2
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and PAOK?
From 2 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, PAOK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 0-2 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Apollon Smirnis 22%, PAOK 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Apollon Smirnis) and 78% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; PAOK in 33%; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 56% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Apollon Smirnis's matches and 78% of PAOK's.
Do Apollon Smirnis and PAOK tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, PAOK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Apollon Smirnis 0-2 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.67 xG and PAOK 1.71 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.60 / defence 1.07 against PAOK attack 1.38 / defence 1.11, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 14% | Draw 23% | PAOK 63%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 39%, PAOK 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.