Ionikos 2-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ionikos at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ionikos vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Atromitos travel to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias to take on Ionikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 January 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Ionikos — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ionikos have posted 2W 3D 3L at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias — 1.12 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Ionikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ionikos 0.50 PPG, Atromitos 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ionikos, 0 for Atromitos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Ionikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 47% versus Atromitos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 35% | Atromitos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.37 xG and Atromitos 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.836 / defence 1.095 | Atromitos attack 0.707 / defence 1.713. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.150. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.713 — this is suppressing Ionikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Ionikos games / 17 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 48% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 24%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Atromitos 4.17. Ionikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ionikos at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ionikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Ionikos 50% | Atromitos 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 48% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Ionikos 1.37 / Atromitos 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.836 / def 1.095 | Atromitos attack 0.707 / def 1.713 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Atromitos xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Ionikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Ionikos 2 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Ionikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Atromitos part of?
Ionikos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 48% chance of winning, Atromitos a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ionikos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Atromitos?
Record (1 meetings): Ionikos 1W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Ionikos and Atromitos in?
Ionikos (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ionikos's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.63
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.26
0.89
Atromitos xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.89 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ionikos's recent record stands at 3W 5D 9L from 17 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 11L across 17 games — 0.59 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ionikos on 0.82 PPG, Atromitos on 0.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ionikos have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ionikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ionikos are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 0.88 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 2W 4D 11L in their last 17 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Atromitos away?
Ionikos's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.12 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ionikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ionikos
0
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Atromitos?
From 6 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 3, Atromitos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Atromitos 2-0 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 50%, Atromitos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ionikos) and 62% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Ionikos have failed to score in 38% of games; Atromitos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ionikos's recent matches and 50% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ionikos's recent games and 62% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ionikos edge out Atromitos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat Atromitos 2-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.37 xG and Atromitos 0.89 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Atromitos attack 0.71 / defence 1.71, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 48% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 24%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 35%, Atromitos 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 0.82 PPG, Atromitos 0.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ionikos win broke the near-deadlock. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.