🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

PAOK and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Toumba Stadium, Championship Group - 5, as PAOK and AEK Athens FC drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.51 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.30 / defence 0.67 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 22%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 63%, AEK Athens FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAOK 1.94 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights