PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates PAOK at 48%, yet in-form AEK Athens FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1 (Championship Group - 5). Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

PAOK (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

PAOK's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — PAOK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

AEK Athens FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 0.60 PPG clear of PAOK over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, PAOK edge it 4 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2026, ended PAOK 0–3 AEK Athens FC — a AEK Athens FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 52% versus AEK Athens FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | AEK Athens FC 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.51 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.300 / defence 0.673 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.316 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. PAOK carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 1.51 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.316, which lifts their away xG to 0.94. PAOK have a tight defence (rating 0.673), which is pulling AEK Athens FC's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 52 games and AEK Athens FC's last 52.

Result probabilities: PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 22%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.07 | Draw 3.34 | AEK Athens FC 4.61. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AEK Athens FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 30% (last 10 home games) | AEK Athens FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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