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Poisson rates PAOK at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC encounter.

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Full Analysis

Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Group - 5. Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

PAOK (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.

AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

AEK Athens FC's away record: 5W 5D 0L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 0.60 PPG clear of PAOK in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with AEK Athens FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 52% versus AEK Athens FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | AEK Athens FC 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.51 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.300 / defence 0.673 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.316 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — the away xG of 0.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PAOK's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 22%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | AEK Athens FC 4.55. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

PAOK dominate the H2H record, yet AEK Athens FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AEK Athens FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.

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