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Stalemate at PAOK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK and AEK Athens FC finished level at 0-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.39 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAOK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.41 / defence 0.71 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.72, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 42% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 32%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 67%, AEK Athens FC 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAOK 2.02 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights