Panserraikos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (68%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Panserraikos face Olympiakos Piraeus.

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Full Analysis

Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Panserraikos have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

Panserraikos at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Olympiakos Piraeus away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to Olympiakos Piraeus, who have 5 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Panserraikos 0–5 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 50% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 61% | Olympiakos Piraeus 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.56 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.749 / defence 1.457 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.146 / defence 0.544. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.092. Panserraikos's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.56. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.544, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Panserraikos's projected output down. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.457 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output up. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 48 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 48.

Result probabilities: Panserraikos 10% | Draw 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 68%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 9.58 | Draw 4.56 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.48. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (68%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 40% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% (last 10 away games).

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