Panetolikos 0-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 3 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Panetolikos) versus 1.10 (Volos NFC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Panetolikos, 0 for Volos NFC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 51% versus Volos NFC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 49% | Volos NFC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.62 xG and Volos NFC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.861 / defence 1.167 | Volos NFC attack 0.635 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 49% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 21%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Volos NFC 4.76. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 50% | Volos NFC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 49% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Panetolikos 1.62 / Volos NFC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.861 / def 1.167 | Volos NFC attack 0.635 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Volos NFC xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 49% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Panetolikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Record (3 meetings): Panetolikos 2W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.41
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.62
1.01
Volos NFC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
4%
23.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.01 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos come into this having played 61 games, going 12W 18D 31L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 1.00 PPG from 61 outings (16W 13D 32L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 0.89 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panetolikos's home form reads 8W 8D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 0.97 points per game from 31 outings (7W 9D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 12W 18D 31L in their last 61 games (0.89 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 16W 13D 32L in their last 61 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.03 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panetolikos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
2
Draws
5
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 39%, Volos NFC 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Panetolikos) and 52% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 42% of games; Volos NFC in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 32% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Panetolikos's recent games and 52% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.62 xG and Volos NFC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Volos NFC attack 0.64 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 49% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 21%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 49%, Volos NFC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.89 PPG, Volos NFC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.