PAS Giannina 1-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 2 as PAS Giannina welcome Panetolikos to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panetolikos stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (PAS Giannina) versus 0.90 (Panetolikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Panetolikos and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 58% versus Panetolikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 50% | Panetolikos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.16 xG and Panetolikos 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.683 / defence 1.111 | Panetolikos attack 0.844 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. PAS Giannina's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 PAS Giannina games / 52 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 31% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 37%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Panetolikos 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 50% | Panetolikos 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 31% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG PAS Giannina 1.16 / Panetolikos 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.683 / def 1.111 | Panetolikos attack 0.844 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Panetolikos xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina 1 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 31% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
Record (7 meetings): PAS Giannina 3W | Draws 3 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
31%
3.22
32%
3.10
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.43
1.27
Panetolikos xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.27 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 10W 22D 28L from 60 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 12W 17D 31L across 60 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 0.87 PPG, Panetolikos on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 7W 11D 11L from 29 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 4W 9D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.02 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 10W 22D 28L in their last 60 games (0.87 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 12W 17D 31L in their last 60 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Panetolikos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.10 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
4
Draws
1
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 3, Panetolikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 52%, Panetolikos 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAS Giannina) and 55% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina have failed to score in 41% of games; Panetolikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of PAS Giannina's games and 62% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 55% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Panetolikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina and Panetolikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Zosimades, Relegation Round - 2, as PAS Giannina and Panetolikos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.16 xG and Panetolikos 1.27 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.68 / defence 1.11 against Panetolikos attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 31% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 37%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 50%, Panetolikos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 0.87 PPG, Panetolikos 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.