Volos NFC 2-2 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Volos NFC at Panthessaliko Stadio this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Volos NFC, 1.00 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Volos NFC 2W, Atromitos 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 44% versus Atromitos 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 58% | Atromitos 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.46 xG and Atromitos 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.873 / defence 1.257 | Atromitos attack 0.800 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 37% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 33%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Atromitos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 70% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 37% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Volos NFC 1.46 / Atromitos 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.873 / def 1.257 | Atromitos attack 0.800 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Atromitos xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Atromitos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Volos NFC 2 - 2 Atromitos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Atromitos part of?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 37% chance of winning, Atromitos a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Volos NFC and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
Record (5 meetings): Volos NFC 2W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.80x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.38
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.37
Atromitos xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.37 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 17W 13D 32L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Atromitos's form line: 16W 23D 23L from 62 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Volos NFC against 1.15 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (9W 4D 17L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 4W 10D 16L from 30 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Atromitos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 17W 13D 32L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 16W 23D 23L in their last 62 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Atromitos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.03 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
3
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Atromitos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 57%, Atromitos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Volos NFC) and 43% (Atromitos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 33% of games; Atromitos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Volos NFC's games and 60% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Volos NFC's matches and 43% of Atromitos's.
Do Volos NFC and Atromitos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Atromitos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 4, as Volos NFC and Atromitos drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.46 xG and Atromitos 1.37 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against Atromitos attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 37% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 33%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 58%, Atromitos 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.03 PPG, Atromitos 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.