OFI 4-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAS Giannina make the trip to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to face OFI in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
PAS Giannina (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
PAS Giannina's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for OFI, 0 for PAS Giannina and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAS Giannina half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus PAS Giannina 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 44% | PAS Giannina 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.90 xG and PAS Giannina 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.932 / defence 0.922 | PAS Giannina attack 0.937 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 52% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 21%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | PAS Giannina 4.76. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | PAS Giannina 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 52% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG OFI 1.90 / PAS Giannina 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.932 / def 0.922 | PAS Giannina attack 0.937 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: OFI (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.18
PAS Giannina xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs PAS Giannina kick off?
OFI vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs PAS Giannina?
OFI 4 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is OFI vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs PAS Giannina part of?
OFI vs PAS Giannina is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 52% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both OFI and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAS Giannina?
Record (7 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 6 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are OFI and PAS Giannina in?
OFI (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
OFI's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (0.94x) against OFI's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.81
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
OFI xG
Total xG
3.07
1.18
PAS Giannina xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
3%
31.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are OFI and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for OFI and 1.18 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
OFI's recent record stands at 15W 23D 23L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 10W 23D 28L across 61 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for OFI against 0.87 for PAS Giannina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, OFI have managed 8W 13D 10L from 31 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 3W 11D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OFI are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 15W 23D 23L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 10W 23D 28L in their last 61 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or PAS Giannina away?
OFI's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.19 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
OFI
6
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did OFI and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when OFI 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between OFI and PAS Giannina?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 48%, PAS Giannina 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (OFI) and 52% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 36% of games; PAS Giannina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play PAS Giannina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of OFI's games and 64% of PAS Giannina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of OFI's recent games and 52% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat PAS Giannina 4-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.90 xG and PAS Giannina 1.18 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAS Giannina landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against PAS Giannina attack 0.94 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 52% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 21%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 44%, PAS Giannina 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.11 PPG, PAS Giannina 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.