Panetolikos 1-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lamia — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Panetolikos) versus 0.90 (Lamia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Panetolikos, 3 for Lamia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Lamia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 46% versus Lamia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 46% | Lamia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.58 xG and Lamia 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.919 / defence 1.266 | Lamia attack 0.834 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.298. Data: 45 Panetolikos games / 45 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 42% | Draw 26% | Lamia 32%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Lamia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Panetolikos 30% | Lamia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 42% | Draw 26% | Lamia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Panetolikos 1.58 / Lamia 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.919 / def 1.266 | Lamia attack 0.834 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Lamia xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panetolikos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Panetolikos 1 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Panetolikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Lamia part of?
Panetolikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 42% chance of winning, Lamia a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Panetolikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Record (5 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 1 | Lamia 3W.
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Lamia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.92x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.84
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.95
1.37
Lamia xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.37 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 52 games, going 10W 14D 28L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 1.02 PPG from 52 outings (11W 20D 21L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 0.85 PPG, Lamia on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 6W 8D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.73 points per game from 26 outings (2W 13D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.88 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 10W 14D 28L in their last 52 games (0.85 PPG), while Lamia have gone 11W 20D 21L in their last 52 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Lamia away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamia away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Lamia have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 35%, Lamia 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Panetolikos) and 42% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 50% of games; Lamia in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 42% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Panetolikos's recent games and 42% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.58 xG and Lamia 1.37 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Lamia attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 42% | Draw 26% | Lamia 32%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lamia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 46%, Lamia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.85 PPG, Lamia 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.