Lamia 4-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamia face Kifisia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kifisia make the trip to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to face Lamia in Super League 1 (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lamia have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lamia at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lamia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kifisia's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Kifisia have posted 0W 2D 6L from their last 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Lamia against 0.50 for Kifisia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended Lamia 1–1 Kifisia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Kifisia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 50% versus Kifisia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 56% | Kifisia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.76 xG and Kifisia 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.829 / defence 1.150 | Kifisia attack 0.615 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.230. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.343 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamia's projected output up. Kifisia's attack rating of 0.615 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Lamia's last 44 games and Kifisia's last 18.
Result probabilities: Lamia 57% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 17%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 1.75 | Draw 3.90 | Kifisia 5.87. The model has a clear lean to Lamia (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lamia 60% (last 10 home games) | Kifisia 50% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 57% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lamia 1.76 / Kifisia 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.829 / def 1.150 | Kifisia attack 0.615 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Lamia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Kifisia xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs Kifisia FAQs
What time does Lamia vs Kifisia kick off?
Lamia vs Kifisia kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Kifisia?
Lamia 4 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Lamia vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Kifisia part of?
Lamia vs Kifisia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 19) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 57% chance of winning, Kifisia a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lamia and Kifisia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lamia vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.83x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kifisia's attack (0.61x) against Lamia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 44 games and Kifisia's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.90
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.63
0.87
Kifisia xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
34.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs Kifisia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lamia and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Lamia and 0.87 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Lamia have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 5W 6D 7L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Kifisia's form line: 2W 6D 10L from 18 games, 0.67 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Lamia are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kifisia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 8 home games (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Kifisia have gone 0W 2D 6L from their last 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kifisia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.06 scored and 2.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 61%.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
Lamia (Home) vs Kifisia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Lamia vs Kifisia Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Kifisia away?
Lamia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.38 PPG; Kifisia away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
0
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs Kifisia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Kifisia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 1, Kifisia have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lamia and Kifisia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 January 2024: Lamia 4-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Kifisia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 62%, Kifisia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Lamia and 75% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs Kifisia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and Kifisia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lamia's games and 50% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lamia and Kifisia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lamia's matches and 75% of Kifisia's.
Do Lamia and Kifisia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Lamia's recent matches and 100% of Kifisia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lamia run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kifisia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Kifisia 4-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.76 xG and Kifisia 0.87 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.83 / defence 1.15 against Kifisia attack 0.61 / defence 1.34, drawn from 44/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 57% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 17%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 56%, Kifisia 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Kifisia's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lamia arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Kifisia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.