Volos NFC 1-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Panetolikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC at Panthessaliko Stadio this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 0.90 PPG, Panetolikos 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Volos NFC have won 0, Panetolikos 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Panetolikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 43% versus Panetolikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 58% | Panetolikos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.31 xG and Panetolikos 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.800 / defence 1.379 | Panetolikos attack 0.744 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.293. Data: 46 Volos NFC games / 46 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 36% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 37%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Panetolikos 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 70% | Panetolikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 36% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Volos NFC 1.31 / Panetolikos 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.800 / def 1.379 | Panetolikos attack 0.744 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Panetolikos xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panetolikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 36% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Volos NFC and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
Record (2 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 2W.
What form are Volos NFC and Panetolikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.80) and Panetolikos's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.70
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.64
1.33
Panetolikos xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.33 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 13W 12D 28L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos's form line: 10W 14D 29L from 53 games, 0.83 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 0.96 PPG, Panetolikos on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (7W 3D 16L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 4W 6D 16L from 26 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.94 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 13W 12D 28L in their last 53 games (0.96 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 10W 14D 29L in their last 53 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panetolikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.92 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Volos NFC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Volos NFC
2
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 5, Panetolikos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panetolikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, Panetolikos 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Volos NFC) and 54% (Panetolikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 38% of games; Panetolikos in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 58% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Volos NFC's matches and 54% of Panetolikos's.
Do Volos NFC and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Panetolikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Panetolikos finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.31 xG and Panetolikos 1.33 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.80 / defence 1.38 against Panetolikos attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 36% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 37%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 58%, Panetolikos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 0.96 PPG, Panetolikos 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.