Asteras Tripolis 3-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Asteras Tripolis face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis host Atromitos at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Asteras Tripolis have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atromitos stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Asteras Tripolis at 1.80 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 36% versus Atromitos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 36% | Atromitos 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.58 xG and Atromitos 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.878 / defence 1.126 | Atromitos attack 1.073 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.298. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 45 games and Atromitos's last 45.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 38%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.63 | Draw 4.10 | Atromitos 2.66. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Asteras Tripolis 38% and Atromitos 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Asteras Tripolis's last 10 home games and Atromitos's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 40% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.58 / Atromitos 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.878 / def 1.126 | Atromitos attack 1.073 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Atromitos xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis 3 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 38% chance of winning, Atromitos a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.88) and Atromitos's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Asteras Tripolis's last 45 games and Atromitos's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
38%
2.63
24%
4.10
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
3.15
1.57
Atromitos xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.57 for Atromitos, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 18D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.17 PPG from 52 outings (14W 19D 19L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.10 PPG, Atromitos on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 9W 10D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 25 away games (4W 7D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.12 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
Asteras Tripolis (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 13W 18D 21L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 14W 19D 19L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Atromitos away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.48 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Atromitos in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Asteras Tripolis have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2025, when Atromitos won Asteras Tripolis 1-4 Atromitos.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
0
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, Atromitos have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Asteras Tripolis 2-1 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 40%, Atromitos 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Asteras Tripolis) and 48% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 32% of games; Atromitos in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 64% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 48% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 76% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Atromitos 3-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.58 xG and Atromitos 1.57 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Atromitos attack 1.07 / defence 1.15, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 38%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 36%, Atromitos 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.10 PPG, Atromitos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.