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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face OFI.

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Match Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus host OFI at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 10W 0D 0L at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

OFI's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 0 for OFI, with 0 draws in between.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

OFI in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 46% versus OFI 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | OFI 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.73 xG and OFI 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.465 / defence 0.727 | OFI attack 0.875 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.250. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 37 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 78% | Draw 14% | OFI 8%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | OFI 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | OFI 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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