OFI 3-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Panserraikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
OFI host Panserraikos at Pankritio Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Pankritio Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panserraikos stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panserraikos have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (OFI) versus 0.50 (Panserraikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of OFI: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Panserraikos, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with OFI winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both OFI and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Panserraikos in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Panserraikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 61% | Panserraikos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.72 xG and Panserraikos 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.794 / defence 1.109 | Panserraikos attack 0.830 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.215. OFI's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 OFI games / 39 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 51% | Draw 24% | Panserraikos 25%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Panserraikos 4.00. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OFI 50% | Panserraikos 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 51% | Draw 24% | Panserraikos 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG OFI 1.72 / Panserraikos 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.794 / def 1.109 | Panserraikos attack 0.830 / def 1.463 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: OFI (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Panserraikos xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panserraikos kick off?
OFI vs Panserraikos kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panserraikos?
OFI 3 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is OFI vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Panserraikos part of?
OFI vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 51% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both OFI and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panserraikos?
Record (6 meetings): OFI 4W | Draws 1 | Panserraikos 1W.
What form are OFI and Panserraikos in?
OFI (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.79) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.19
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
OFI xG
Total xG
2.84
1.12
Panserraikos xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
4%
22.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are OFI and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for OFI and 1.12 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, OFI have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 13W 8D 23L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos's form line: 11W 8D 25L from 44 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.07 PPG, Panserraikos on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 4W 2D 15L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 0.95 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 8D 23L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 11W 8D 25L in their last 44 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panserraikos away?
OFI's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.00 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
OFI go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2024, when OFI won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
OFI
1
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panserraikos?
From 7 meetings on record, OFI have won 5, Panserraikos have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when OFI 3-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panserraikos?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 52%, Panserraikos 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for OFI and 62% for Panserraikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 33% of games; Panserraikos in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of OFI's recent matches and 48% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of OFI's matches and 62% of Panserraikos's.
Do OFI and Panserraikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Panserraikos 3-0 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.72 xG and Panserraikos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Panserraikos attack 0.83 / defence 1.46, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 51% | Draw 24% | Panserraikos 25%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 61%, Panserraikos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.07 PPG, Panserraikos 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.