Panetolikos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panetolikos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Panetolikos Stadium to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Panetolikos Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 1.30 PPG clear of Panetolikos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.50 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Olympiakos Piraeus have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Panetolikos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 37% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.33 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 1.150 / defence 1.090 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.226 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.207. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Panetolikos games / 37 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 32% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Panetolikos 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 32% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Panetolikos 1.33 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 1.150 / def 1.090 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.226 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 32% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (8 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 7W.
What form are Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (1.15) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.23x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
32%
3.16
24%
4.12
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.95
1.61
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.16
32%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
6%
15.84
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.61 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 11D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.40 PPG from 43 outings (32W 7D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Panetolikos's home form reads 8W 2D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.14 points per game from 21 outings (14W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.95 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 15W 11D 17L in their last 43 games (1.30 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 32W 7D 4L in their last 43 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.24 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-1 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Panetolikos
1
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 33%, Olympiakos Piraeus 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Panetolikos) and 38% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 57%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Panetolikos's recent games and 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.33 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.23 / defence 0.80, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 32% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 30%, Olympiakos Piraeus 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.