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Poisson rates PAOK at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.

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Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Toumba Stadium to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 December 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

PAOK have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Toumba Stadium, PAOK have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in PAOK's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 57% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 68% | Aris Thessalonikis 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.60 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.199 / defence 0.628 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.837 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.227. PAOK's defence rating of 0.628 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 PAOK games / 38 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAOK 60% | Draw 25% | Aris Thessalonikis 15%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Aris Thessalonikis 6.67. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 60% BTTS from recent games.

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