Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa meet at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1 (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Larisa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Larisa have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Olympiakos Piraeus's favour (2.10 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 Larisa — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 32% versus Larisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Larisa 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.52 xG and Larisa 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.045 / defence 0.643 | Larisa attack 0.745 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.097. Larisa's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.53. Olympiakos Piraeus have a tight defence (rating 0.643), which is pulling Larisa's projected output down. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 51 games and Larisa's last 25.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 28% | Larisa 11%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.65 | Draw 3.55 | Larisa 8.85. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Larisa's lower xG of 0.53 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 home games) | Larisa 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 28% | Larisa 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.52 / Larisa 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.045 / def 0.643 | Larisa attack 0.745 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Larisa xG
33%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa FAQs
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa?
Olympiakos Piraeus 0 - 0 Larisa.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 61% chance of winning, Larisa a 11% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.04) and Larisa's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.74x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 51 games and Larisa's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.9%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
61%
1.65
28%
3.55
11%
8.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.05
0.53
Larisa xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
8.85
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
2%
40.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 10.3 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.9 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.53 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.28 PPG on a 17W 6D 2L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Larisa's form line: 4W 10D 11L from 25 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Larisa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.42 PPG from their last 12 home games (9W 2D 1L).
On the road, Larisa have gone 2W 4D 6L from their last 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.88 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Larisa
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus (Home) vs Larisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa Form FAQs
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 17W 6D 2L in their last 25 games (2.28 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 10D 11L in their last 25 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Larisa away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.42 PPG; Larisa away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Larisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Larisa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 1, Larisa have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 42% (Larisa) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 42% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Larisa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 42% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 42% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 75% of Larisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Olympiakos Piraeus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa finished level at 0-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.52 xG and Larisa 0.53 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.04 / defence 0.64 against Larisa attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 51/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 28% | Larisa 11%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 40%, Larisa 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and duly kept one.
Larisa's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.