🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Iraklis 1908 vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Iraklis 1908 and AEK Athens FC meet at Kaftanzoglio Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AEK Athens FC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.08 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.137 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Iraklis 1908 games / 26 AEK Athens FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 27% | Draw 31% | AEK Athens FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | AEK Athens FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights