OFI vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees PAOK travel to Pankritio Stadium to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
OFI at Pankritio Stadium this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
PAOK — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (OFI) versus 1.40 (PAOK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour PAOK, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for OFI.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
PAOK trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 47% versus PAOK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 69% | PAOK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.32 xG and PAOK 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.031 / defence 1.033 | PAOK attack 1.085 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 OFI games / 26 PAOK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OFI 38% | Draw 31% | PAOK 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | PAOK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: OFI 20% | PAOK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 38% | Draw 31% | PAOK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG OFI 1.32 / PAOK 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.031 / def 1.033 | PAOK attack 1.085 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: OFI (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.20
PAOK xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs PAOK kick off?
OFI vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs PAOK part of?
OFI vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 38% chance of winning, PAOK a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both OFI and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
Record (10 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 2 | PAOK 6W.
What form are OFI and PAOK in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. OFI (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.03) and PAOK's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.25
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
OFI xG
Total xG
2.53
1.20
PAOK xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are OFI and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for OFI and 1.20 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 3D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. OFI haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.00 PPG from 32 outings (18W 10D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. PAOK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 8W 0D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.50 points per game from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.84 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Pre-Season
PAOK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and PAOK in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 12W 3D 17L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while PAOK have gone 18W 10D 4L in their last 32 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or PAOK away?
OFI's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.50 PPG; PAOK away: 1.50 PPG.
Have OFI or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, PAOK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, PAOK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 31%, PAOK 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for OFI and 62% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; PAOK in 31%; OFI have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of OFI's recent matches and 56% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of OFI's matches and 62% of PAOK's.
Do OFI and PAOK tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, PAOK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.